The Daily Planet #20: Nils Gilman on the Ecological Cold War

Gilman writes frequently about planetary politics, including a book about which I will talk about sometime. Today's Daily Planet is from his Substack.

The coming ecological Cold War marks a profound geopolitical shift centered not on ideology but on the metabolic foundation of modern civilization—energy and decarbonization. As the world grapples with the urgent need to transition to a low-carbon economy, two opposing blocs are emerging. China has transformed from a major polluter into a green hegemon, leveraging state-led industrial policy to dominate solar panel production, battery manufacturing, and renewable infrastructure. This green authoritarianism positions China as a global leader in ecological modernization, blending environmental goals with geopolitical ambition.

Opposing this is a petro-axis comprising the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, united by their dependence on fossil fuels and resistance to decarbonization. Each pursues its own interests: the U.S. oscillates between climate action and fossil-fuel nationalism; Russia relies on hydrocarbons for power and influence; Saudi Arabia aims to remain the last major oil producer. Together, they form an ideological and economic coalition defending carbon-based industrialism, framing the green transition as a threat to sovereignty and identity.

According to Gilman, this new Cold War transcends traditional political divides, pitting a Sino-European alliance focused on ecological modernization against a petro-state axis defending fossil sovereignty. The outcome will shape not only global power dynamics but the very habitability of the planet, so no pressure guys.

The Coming Ecological Cold War

How the green transition is reshaping geopolitics