The Daily Planet #106: The China Shock, Part 7

As I promised earlier, this week's China Shock themed Daily Planets will all be on China's centrality to our planetary future, whether it comes in a climate action form or a renewable energy form.

A decade after the Paris climate accord was signed, political support in the West is weakening, with the U.S. having withdrawn again under President Trump and Europe and Canada hesitating due to the costs and political challenges of climate policies. Despite this, the global transition to clean energy is accelerating, largely propelled by China's emergence as a clean-tech powerhouse. China's massive investments in manufacturing solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles have dramatically lowered the costs of these technologies, making clean energy competitive with fossil fuels in many markets without heavy subsidies.

China, while still the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has played a paradoxical role in sustaining the Paris accord. Its rapid scale-up of clean energy production has driven down prices globally, enabling developing countries to adopt renewables affordably even as climate finance from wealthier nations declines. For example, India is purchasing vast amounts of solar and battery capacity from Chinese manufacturers without relying on Western subsidies. This shift is crucial as global emissions continue to rise, with China's carbon dioxide emissions increasing from about 10 billion tons in 2015 to over 12 billion tons recently, representing roughly a third of global emissions.

Although the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius now seems out of reach, the cost advantages of renewables are undeniable. Analysts note that solar, wind, and battery storage are increasingly competitive with conventional energy sources, even as intermittent renewable generation requires grid balancing solutions. Meanwhile, Western countries face political and economic headwinds, with some rolling back incentives and subsidies amid inflation and geopolitical tensions.

China's emissions growth has slowed recently due to its extensive wind and solar installations, and coal and gas generation have declined slightly. The future trajectory of global emissions will heavily depend on China's climate policies in the coming years. Meanwhile, the rise of energy-intensive technologies like artificial intelligence further underscores the urgent need for rapid clean energy expansion, with solar and batteries currently the most viable options to meet growing demand.

China’s Shift to Clean Energy Is Saving the Paris Climate Accord

Beijing’s massive manufacturing investments have driven the costs of clean energy down.