The Daily Planet #61: Energy Sovereignty, Part 4. Water Wars

Humans can't survive without water. We are mostly water. So it's not surprising that control over water is both a sign of sovereignty as well as ways in which one sovereign can undermine another.

China's control over the Tibetan Plateau, the source of major rivers feeding nearly two billion people across Asia, has become a critical geopolitical issue. By constructing massive dams on transboundary rivers such as the Mekong, Brahmaputra, and Indus, China wields significant power over the water supply of downstream nations including India, Bangladesh, and Southeast Asian countries. These dams not only generate hydroelectric power but also enable China to regulate and divert water flows, threatening the water security of millions. The planned Yarlung Zangbo mega-dam on the Brahmaputra River, set to be three times larger than the Three Gorges Dam, exemplifies this growing hydro-political leverage.

China's dam projects have already been linked to droughts and floods downstream, illustrating the potential for water to be used as a geopolitical weapon. The country's own water scarcity challenges, with thousands of rivers lost to overuse and pollution, drive its aggressive water diversion strategies. This intensifies the vulnerability of downstream nations, which rely heavily on these rivers for agriculture, industry, and daily life. The lack of effective international governance over transboundary rivers leaves downstream countries with little recourse, often forcing them into concessions.

In response, desalination technology emerges as a promising solution to reduce dependence on upstream water sources. Advances in reverse osmosis membranes and the availability of cheap solar power make desalination increasingly viable for coastal and riverine nations. By producing freshwater independently, downstream countries can build reserves to withstand seasonal shortages and political pressure. This technological shift could transform water scarcity from a zero-sum conflict into a more cooperative and sustainable future.

Ultimately, China's damming of the Tibetan Plateau rivers highlights the complex intersection of environmental management, energy production, and geopolitical power. While dams offer benefits like renewable energy and water storage, their strategic use on international rivers risks destabilizing entire regions. Desalination and improved water management may hold the key to breaking this cycle of dependency and conflict.

Moral of the story: China's damming of Tibetan rivers might lead to water crises that can only be solved by using renewable energy to desalinate water at scale. Which can only be done using solar panels and windmills bought from China. Either way, they win :(

Chinese dams hold billions of people to ransom

Could desalination make them irrelevant?