I don't buy the petro vs electro theory of the metabolic wars (I think it's compute versus electric), but we nevertheless have to take that formulation seriously.

In this view, the world is entering a new energy-tech Cold War, defined by a stark divide between electrification, led by China, and hydrocarbons, championed by the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. China is rapidly transforming its energy landscape, investing heavily in solar, wind, and electric vehicles (EVs), achieving milestones like surpassing one terawatt of solar PV capacity and making EVs over half of new car sales. This massive build-out of clean energy infrastructure and technology positions China as the leader in the global shift toward electrification, exporting affordable clean-tech products worldwide and driving down costs.

In contrast, the US is doubling down on fossil fuels, setting records in oil production and aggressively expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Alongside Saudi Arabia and Russia, the US forms a petro-bloc that manages supply and prices through coordinated policies like OPEC+ cuts, maintaining leverage over global energy markets. Europe, increasingly dependent on US LNG, finds itself caught between decarbonization ambitions and energy security concerns, which prolong reliance on gas and fossil fuels.

This geopolitical rivalry extends beyond energy production to supply chains, technology standards, and financial influence, with China pushing electrification and the petro-bloc advocating for technology-neutral policies that favor gas and carbon capture. The outcome of this competition will critically shape the global climate trajectory. If China's electrification efforts scale rapidly, enabling widespread adoption of EVs, solar, and batteries, the world could see a meaningful reduction in emissions and a path closer to the Paris Agreement goals. However, if the petro-bloc's fossil fuel infrastructure and LNG expansion lock in decades of emissions, methane leakage and delayed electrification will push global warming beyond safe limits.

Ultimately, the decisive factor is how quickly clean energy technologies replace fossil fuels in everyday use--whether the world embraces electrons over molecules. China's rapid electrification offers hope, but complacency and continued fossil fuel dependence risk locking in a dangerous warming path above 2°C. The future hinges on accelerating demand-side electrification, cutting methane emissions, and managing grids to integrate renewable energy at scale.